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Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee: Feds inflation target acts as an anchor on expectations

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee speaks ahead of his moderated discussion with CNBC Liesman.

  • The Fed's inflation target is 2% after that as it is based on expectations
  • Short-term inflation expectations are not what matters
  • Unsurprisingly, the one-year forecast was higher
  • At the moment there is not much evidence that inflation is stabilizing at 3%.
  • We hit the inflation bulb this year and now we wait.
  • We need to sniff the data down.
  • We are relatively restricted in terms of politics.
  • The real federal funds rate is as high as it has been in decades.
  • I'm reluctant to focus too much on the latest inflation data.
  • I think we are limited in politics
  • Positive developments in supply can make it difficult to gauge whether the economy is overheating

Like the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsby speaks, and a quick snapshot of the markets shows: the Dow Jones is up 0.19%, the S&P is unchanged, and the Nasdaq is -0.20%. The 2-year yield is 4.863% and the 10-year yield is 4.502% (1:22 p.m. ET)

  • Increased immigration adds 80,000 per month to jobs.
  • Given the high inflation rate, we will have to wait and see regarding policy.
  • If high inflation means hyperactivity, the Fed should do everything it can to reach the 2% target.
  • Housing price inflation remains a major puzzle and challenge
  • If housing inflation declines, there will be an optimistic path toward an inflation rate of 2%.
  • We do not accept to be stuck at the last mile of inflation.
  • The supply chain has mostly healed, but the benefits of increased labor supply may continue through 2024
  • High interest rates create instability in the housing market and take away some supply, but this is not behind the housing inflation puzzle.

Apparently, this was just Goolsbee talking and the main event with Kashkari has not started yet.

My question is “why?”. PS Kashkaris spoke earlier as well. “Why?”

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